Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 1862 · SFO → LAX
departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 1:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 39%
Sun 11/15 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
73%
Arrive 1h+ late
69%
Cancelled
17%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
73%
Yes 73%
No 27%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
30%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.86 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,867 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.