Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Today
DL 1891 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.