Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
DL 1891 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.