Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2266 · ATL → BUF
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 4:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BUF that day
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.