Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2300
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2300 · LGA → MIA
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 6:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 30%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 56%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
66%
chance · ±14 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
66%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.