Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
DL 2404 · LGA → TPA
departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 58%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
83%
chance · ±16 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
83%
Leave 15+ late
67%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
83%
Yes 83%
No 17%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.