Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
DL 2404 · LGA → TPA
departs 3:39 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12 83%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.39 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.