Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
DL 2515 · SLC → MEM
departs 1:40 PM MT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 16%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 18%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.