DL 2816 · ORD → BOS

took off 4:37 PM CT · expected to land 7:34 PM ET (scheduled 3:19 PM CT → 6:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
86%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 767 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling833 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2816 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?