Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3042
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 3042 · STS → SNA
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.