Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 3949 · DTW → ELM
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 15%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ELM that day
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
ELM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.