Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4243 · DTW → ESC
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 13%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ESC more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ESC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ESC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ESC?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ESC
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
ESC usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ESC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.