OO 4633 · MRY → SFO

departs 7:52 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±14 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4633 · MRY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?