Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
OO 4633 · MRY → SFO
departs 7:52 PM PT · arrives 8:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
85%
chance · ±10 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
85%
Leave 15+ late
77%
Arrive 1h+ late
75%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
85%
Yes 85%
No 15%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
77%
Yes 77%
No 23%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −22 pts in 24h
−22 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
39%
Over 2 hours late
27%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MRY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.41 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.