OO 4796 · LAX → SBA

departs 9:07 PM PT · arrives 10:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SBA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4796 · LAX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?