Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4992
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 4992 · ORD → MKE
departs 9:32 PM CT · arrives 10:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 11/11 37%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.