Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
OO 5398 · LAX → MRY
departs 7:13 PM PT · arrives 8:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 44%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MRY (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.