OO 5402 · SEA → SFO

departs 8:32 PM PT · arrives 10:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±9 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5402 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?