Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
OO 5402 · SEA → SFO
departs 8:33 PM PT · arrives 10:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 46%
Mon 11/16 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±10 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SEA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.