Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 5444 · ORD → SBN
departs 9:32 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.