Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 5499 · ORD → SBN
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 30%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.