Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
OO 5518 · ORD → TVC
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 10:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 35%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
TVC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TVC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.