OO 6012 · SFO → MRY

departs 10:53 PM PT · arrives 11:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MRY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6012 · SFO → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?