UA 2299 · LGA → ORD

departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

85% chance · ±15 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
14%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.71 in

ORD (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2299 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?