Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2435 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?