Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 268 · EWR → BOG

departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 11:06 PM -05

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Arrivals into BOG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 268 · EWR → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?