Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 268 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, November 13

UA 268 · EWR → BOG

departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 10:54 PM -05

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

↓ Arrivals into BOG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.26 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 268 · EWR → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?