Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 893 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 893 · SFO → ICN

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 3:50 PM KST

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ICN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 893 · SFO → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?