WN 1627 · SMF → PDX

departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 3:24 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8992L (B38M), coming in as WN 1543 from SEA: in the air, landing about 12:51 PM PT, 48 min before departure.

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1627 · SMF → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?