Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 1627 · SMF → PDX
departs 1:41 PM PT · arrives 3:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
SMF usually runs smoothly
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.46 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.