WN 202 · BWI → ROC

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ROC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

ROC (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 202 · BWI → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?