Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 202
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 202 · BWI → ROC
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.