Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2051 · HOU → DCA
departs 2:02 PM CT · arrives 6:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at HOU that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.