Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2053 · ABQ → PHX
departs 4:12 PM MT · arrives 5:39 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 35%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.