Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2053
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2053 · ABQ → PHX
departs 4:12 PM MT · arrives 5:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.