Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2533 · SFO → PHX
departs 4:11 PM PT · arrives 7:16 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 96%
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 49%
Tue 11/17 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.