Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2533 · SFO → PHX
departs 4:11 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 11/12 58%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 49%
Tue 11/17 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
96%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
96%
Leave 15+ late
82%
Arrive 1h+ late
75%
Cancelled
20%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
96%
Yes 96%
No 4%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
3%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
31%
Over 2 hours late
29%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.65 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.