Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2538 · LAX → SJC
departs 12:01 PM PT · arrives 1:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 50%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.