Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2538 · LAX → SJC
departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 1:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12 24%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SJC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.26 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.81 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.