Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2855 · MCO → SAN
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 53%
Sat 11/14 39%
Sun 11/15 55%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.