Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 2855 · MCO → SAN
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 11/12 46%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 39%
Sun 11/15 55%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.