Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2868 · MIA → DAL
departs 2:36 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 40%
Sat 11/14 36%
Sun 11/15 36%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.