Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2971 · BNA → DTW
departs 4:55 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.