Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 3011 · PHX → HOU
departs 4:19 PM MT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 58%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.