Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3011 · PHX → HOU
departs 4:18 PM MT · arrives 7:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 42%
Tue 11/17 34%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.