Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3019
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3019 · DAL → DCA
departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sun 11/15 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.