WN 3198 · OAK → BUR

departs 1:28 PM PT · arrives 2:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from OAK are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3198 · OAK → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?