Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13 Tomorrow
WN 3198 · OAK → BUR
departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 2:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 11/13
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.49 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.