Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3238 · OAK → SAN
departs 2:06 PM PT · arrives 3:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 43%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.