Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Nov 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, November 13
WN 3238 · OAK → SAN
departs 2:06 PM PT · arrives 3:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.58 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.